Eric FriarOct 26, 2012 at 6:56
This time four years ago, the democrats had banked 50.59% of the vote they were going to get from absentee ballots. The republicans had banked 43.16% of the vote they were going to get from absentee ballots. Unaffiliated absentee ballots were at 44.15%. If we use the 2008 turn out model, and discount the enthusiasm gap between D's and R's and simply play it safe, the numbers for the democrats, are about 400,000 short of 2008. That translates into a 4 point swing to romney, even without factoring in the added enthusiasm for R's this cycle. Suffolk was correct to stop polling here 2 weeks ago.