62.3% of total voters voted early in 2008.
Of those who voted early
52% Dems / 48% Repub & Unafilliated combined
Final 2008 vote had Obama win over McCain by 0.4%
This means a greater percentage of voted for McCain on Election Day 2008.
Of those who voted early in 2012
2,728,659 total votes early.
47.7% Dems
31.5% Repubs
20.6% Unafil
Blacks overwhelmingly register Dem and vote Dem (maybe 93%?) in 2008.
In 2008, Blacks who voted early could have made up 50-52% of early Dem vote?
In 2012, Blacks who voted early could make up 50-57% of Dems who vote early?
7% more Blacks have already voted in 2012 than 2008. This is a greater number AND percentage of the early vote than 2008.
We may be surprised to see Blacks give a smaller percentage to Obama in 2012 than they did in 2008?
Michael
6:03
I want to gather a couple more observations. . .
FEWER Dems (3.8%) voted early in 2012 than 2008 (49,460 LESS.
7% More Blacks voted early in 2012 than 2008 (49,456 more - WOW) That means 98,961 FEWER non-Black voters in 2012 than 2008.
That means non-Black early voting is down 14% from 2008.
We cannot determine (from these statistics) how many 2008 voters (if any) switched parties since 2008.
The number of non-Dems voting early in 2012 is UP SIGNIFICANTLY.
And don't forget the 2012 Primary election. 20% of NC Democrats voted for Other instead of Obama.
And don't forget 2010. It was a mid-term election and greater numbers came out and voted than 2008. BUT, fewer Dems voted early in 2010 than 2008.
I think we will see Romney win the presidency.
We may see the NC legislature become even more Republican? I think a lot of Dems will be willing to vote for Romney BUT Dem for their local choices.
We will see tonight.
James
17:39
NC only needed 64 more electoral votes to make that happen.